Statistics Colloquium by Ruairi ÓCearúil '20, Wednesday, March 11

Does My Vote Matter? A Statistical Approach to Determining Fairness in Electoral Politics by Ruairi ÓCearúil ’20, Statistics Colloquium, Wednesday, March 11, 1:10 – 1:50 pm, Stetson Court Classroom 105

Abstract:

In any Democracy, a citizen rightly finds themselves wondering how much their vote actually matters.  In traditional statistical understanding of electoral politics, “voting power” is defined as the probability that a single vote is decisive in the outcome of the election.  Voting power is an important concept in studying political representation and fairness as well as campaign strategy, and in this way has important implications for political science as well statistics.  In my talk, I will look at how traditional mathematical calculations of voting power can be qualified and expanded to discussions of both weighted elections, two-stage elections (like the Electoral College), and coalition structures.  We will also explore the empirical failings of the random voting model that simpler mathematical theorems put forth and interrogate why more complex probability models for votes move us closer to a realistic understanding of voting power as it exists in the United States.  This talk aims to allow us to take an applied, realistic approach to the statistical theory of voter power which in turn will inform our understanding of the fairness of the U.S. electoral process.