Do Car Seat Laws Really Reduce Birth Rates? Reassessing a Controversial Claim by Victor Cazabal '25

Do Car Seat Laws Really Reduce Birth Rates? Reassessing a Controversial Claim by Victor Cazabal ’25, Wednesday April 23, 1:00 – 1:50pm, North Science Building 015, Wachenheim, Statistics Colloquium

In 2023, Senator J.D. Vance cited a working paper suggesting stricter car seat laws reduce U.S. birth rates. This colloquium critically evaluates that claim, highlighting concerns such as methodological issues, prolonged publication delays, and missing data transparency. Focusing on the paper’s central result—a 0.73 percentage-point drop in annual birth probability among mothers with two young children—I attempt to replicate their analysis using Connecticut-specific data. My preliminary findings differ considerably from the original study, casting doubt on its conclusions and emphasizing the need for careful causal inference in policy research.